Florio vs. Simms: PFT’s Week 17 2025 NFL Picks and Key Game Notes
By Staff Reporter
Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio and Chris Simms released their Week 17 picks and analysis, breaking down several games with playoff implications and rooting through storylines that could shape the final weekend of the regular season.
Overview
Florio and Simms disagreed on a handful of games but aligned on others, offering both straight-up score predictions and concise reasoning for each selection. Their Week 17 slate includes pivotal matchups such as Chargers at Texans, Ravens at Packers, Buccaneers at Dolphins, Patriots at Jets and Eagles at Bills.
Selected game-by-game picks and notes
Chargers at Texans
Florio predicted a narrow Chargers victory, forecasting Chargers 23, Texans 20, while Simms favored the upset, picking Texans 20, Chargers 17—a pick that reflects Texas’s seven-game win streak and the matchup’s playoff implications for the Texans.[1]
Ravens at Packers (Packers -2.5)
Florio expects Green Bay to move closer to a playoff berth and sees Baltimore looking ahead to offseason changes, projecting Packers 24, Ravens 17.[1]
Buccaneers at Dolphins
Both analysts give Tampa Bay the edge in this divisional bout; Florio’s pick was Buccaneers 31, Dolphins 23 and Simms slightly lower with Buccaneers 28, Dolphins 24, reflecting confidence in Tampa Bay’s offensive upside.[1]
Patriots at Jets (Patriots -13.5)
Both picked blowouts for New England, with Florio forecasting Patriots 35, Jets 10 and Simms Patriots 31, Jets 10, emphasizing the mismatch implied by the large spread.[1]
Saints at Titans (Saints -2.5)
The pair agreed on a Saints win, each projecting a close game: Saints 20, Titans 17—a selection that also highlights rookie quarterback Tyler Shough’s late-season run for Offensive Rookie of the Year consideration.[1]
Giants at Raiders (Raiders -1.5)
Florio leaned to the home side with Raiders 27, Giants 24, while Simms predicted Raiders 20, Giants 17, underscoring a belief that the Raiders would eke out a narrow win in a low-scoring affair.[1]
Eagles at Bills (Bills -1.5)
Both saw Buffalo taking this key matchup, with Florio’s pick at Bills 30, Eagles 27 and Simms’ at Bills 24, Eagles 20, noting concerns about Josh Allen’s foot as a potential factor.[1]
Rams at Falcons (Rams -8.5)
After a disappointing Week 16 for Los Angeles, both still favored the Rams to respond: Florio projected Rams 34, Falcons 20 and Simms Rams 31, Falcons 24, suggesting the Rams would cover the spread despite recent struggles.[1]
Context and storylines to watch
- Playoff positioning: Several Week 17 picks hinge on teams either clinching or jockeying for seeding, making these games especially consequential for late-season momentum.[3]
- Injury watch: Simms called out Josh Allen’s foot as a concern for the Bills, a factor that could affect both game scripts and betting lines.[1]
- Rookie impact: Tyler Shough’s late run for Offensive Rookie of the Year was highlighted in the Saints–Titans preview as a storyline that could influence Tampa Bay and other evaluations ahead of offseason awards and decisions.[1]
- Power rankings alignment: PFT’s Week 17 power rankings place teams such as the Seahawks, Jaguars and Bills near the top, offering perspective on why some picks favor those clubs against lower-ranked opponents.[5]
Where Florio and Simms diverge
Disagreements—most notably on Chargers vs. Texans—reflect contrasting views on short-term momentum versus roster matchups and home-field advantage; those variances capture why weekly punditry remains useful for bettors and fans weighing close matchups.[1]
How to use these picks
Florio and Simms provide straight-up score predictions rather than explicit betting advice; readers should combine these assessments with injury reports, weather conditions and updated betting lines before making wagering decisions.