Bitcoin Enters Bear Market Territory Below $95K Amid Options Expiry and ETF Outflows
Bitcoin has slipped into what analysts are calling a “bear market regime,” trading below the critical $95,000 threshold as a massive options expiry looms today, exacerbating volatility and downward pressure on the cryptocurrency.[6] The premier digital asset hovered around $87,700 on Thursday, down from recent highs near $90,000, with persistent ETF outflows and profit-taking by large investors fueling the decline.[4]
Record Options Expiry Sets Stage for Volatility
Today, December 26, 2025, marks a pivotal moment for Bitcoin with a record $23.7 billion in options contracts expiring, primarily on the Deribit exchange involving 268,000 contracts.[1] The expiry features a 3:1 call-to-put imbalance, signaling bullish positioning among traders, but gamma decay and a liquidity vacuum could shatter the current $85,000–$90,000 trading range.
The “max pain” level—where options sellers profit most by having the most contracts expire worthless—is estimated near $95,000.[1][4] Historical patterns indicate Bitcoin often gravitates toward this point 24–48 hours before expiry, potentially drawing the price higher in the short term. However, a dense $1.4 billion cluster of open interest at the $85,000 put strike could serve as a floor, forcing market makers to hedge if prices dip below.[1]
“Gamma decay and liquidity vacuum may break $85,000–$90,000 range, with max pain near $95,000.”[1]
ETF Outflows and Whale Panic Drive Selloff
Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have seen five consecutive days of withdrawals, weakening institutional demand and contributing to the price compression.[4] Trading volumes remain low, with Bitcoin failing to sustain rebounds above $90,000, settling in an intraday range of roughly $86,900 to $89,400 on recent sessions.[3]
The sharp 32% crash from Bitcoin’s all-time high of around $126,000 in early October was largely driven by “new whales”—large holders who accumulated near the peak and panic-sold as prices fell toward $84,000.[5] On-chain data from CryptoQuant revealed spikes in realized losses from these cohorts, while long-term holders stayed steady, potentially stabilizing the downside.[5]
Technical Indicators Signal Caution
Bitcoin’s price is compressed in a tight range around $91,000, with key resistance at $94,700 (Fibonacci 0.236 level) and support at $91,000, potentially extending to $85,250 or lower at $75,000-$78,000 if breached.[2] The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 43, below neutral at 50, indicating growing bearish momentum despite a recent bullish MACD crossover that’s now fading.[4]
Market depth has contracted, elevating squeeze risks in either direction, especially during the Christmas period when BTC historically swings 5-7% due to year-end expiries.[4] A break above $90,000 could target $94,253 and the psychological $100,000, but failure risks a drop to $85,569.[4]
Macro Factors and Year-End Outlook
Mixed macroeconomic signals, including accelerating ETF outflows since late November, reflect a shift in investor sentiment as the financial year ends.[3] Markets have priced in an 85.1% probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, which could boost non-yielding assets like Bitcoin by addressing bond yields.[3]
Prediction markets like Polymarket show slim odds for year-end recovery: 18% for $95,000 and just 6% for $100,000, with 15% chance of $80,000 and under 1% for extremes above $130,000 or below $70,000.[5] Analysts warn that a sustained drop below $93,000 could accelerate the bearish regime without December rate cuts or fresh catalysts.[6]
| Level | Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| $100,000 | Resistance | Psychological barrier, Fib 0.382 |
| $95,000 | Max Pain/Resistance | Options expiry focal point |
| $90,000 | Pivot | Recent rejection level |
| $85,000-$85,569 | Support | Put cluster, key floor |
Potential Outcomes Post-Expiry
The path of least resistance leans toward $95,000-$100,000 if $85,000-$88,000 holds, per historical expiry patterns.[1] Yet, low liquidity and high gamma exposure risk spikes: an upside breakout above $90,000 could re-rate fair value higher, while a breakdown might trigger liquidations.[1][2]
Traders eye ETF flows as the primary gauge of institutional mood heading into 2026.[3] With market cap at $1.77 trillion and 24-hour volume around $33 billion, Bitcoin remains range-bound in a digestion phase post-profit taking.[2][3]
As the options expiry unfolds today, the cryptocurrency market braces for potential fireworks, with Bitcoin’s trajectory hinging on whether support holds or volatility unleashes a larger move.