Game context and outlook

Dallas remains a team with high-end offensive talent but inconsistent play; ESPN rates Dallas’ offense among the league’s best in passing and scoring while the defense has been porous, especially against the pass and in overall rankings, creating a contest that may come down to whether Dallas can protect its lead and generate turnovers on defense[2].

Washington has struggled late in the season, losing nine of its past 10 games and suffering multiple lopsided defeats, but the matchup offers the Commanders a chance to defend home turf on a holiday and play spoiler against a nearby divisional rival[2][4].

Three keys to the game

• Pressure the quarterback and end Dallas’ sack drought. Dallas’ pass rush has been inconsistent, and ESPN notes the Cowboys have struggled to create sacks in recent games; generating pressure will be crucial given Washington will likely be without multiple starting offensive linemen, a factor that could make a difference in short-yardage and third-down situations[2].
• Limit explosive plays and protect field position. The Commanders’ offense has not consistently produced at an elite level this season, but Washington remains dangerous on the ground and on play-action when given space; both teams need to avoid quick turnovers and big-play bursts that flip momentum, especially in a holiday game with heightened crowd attention[1][2].
• Win the turnover battle and capitalize in the red zone. Turnover differential has been a drag for both clubs this season (Cowboys minus-8, Commanders minus-12), and the team that wins turnover and red-zone efficiency will have the clearest path to victory in a matchup where both defenses have been vulnerable at times[2].

Matchups to watch

Dallas’ passing game — ranked among the league leaders — will face a Commanders defense that has shown vulnerabilities in the secondary late in the season[2]. Conversely, Washington’s running game, which has produced better results than its passing attack in spots this year, could test a Cowboys rush defense that has been middle-of-the-pack against the run[2][1].

Betting and prediction context

Oddsmakers list the Cowboys as favorites in much of the market, with projections that the game could be relatively high-scoring — several outlets expect the combined total to be in the 50-point range — reflecting the offensive upside both teams retain despite inconsistent results[1][2].

Coach and roster notes

Washington is playing its first Christmas Day game in franchise history and has faced injuries along its offensive line in recent weeks, which could impact play-calling and protection schemes on short notice[4][2]. Dallas is managing the lingering inconsistencies that have defined its season, particularly on defense, where stops and pass-rush production have been intermittent[2].

What to expect

Expect a physical divisional battle with an emphasis on situational football — third downs, turnovers and red-zone execution. The Cowboys’ top-tier passing attack gives them a clear edge in explosive potential, while Washington’s motivation to defend home turf on a holiday and the possibility of injuries on the Cowboys’ front could make the result tighter than records suggest[2][1][4].