NFL Divisional Round 2026: Expert Predictions Heat Up as Seahawks Eye Upset Over Injury-Plagued 49ers
The NFL playoffs ignite with the 2026 Divisional Round, featuring four high-stakes matchups that promise drama, upsets, and potential record-breakers. Kicking off Saturday with Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks, followed by Houston Texans hosting New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams visiting Chicago Bears on Sunday, experts are divided on outcomes amid injuries, momentum shifts, and historic streaks.[1][2]
Seahawks vs. 49ers: NFC West Rivalry Renewed in Seattle
The spotlight falls on the NFC West clash as the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks (14-3) host the battle-tested San Francisco 49ers (12-5) at Lumen Field Saturday night at 8 p.m. ET. Seattle enters as 7-point favorites with a total of 45.5 points, fresh off a bye after dominating the regular season.[3] The 49ers advanced with a gritty 23-19 wild-card win at Philadelphia but carry injury woes, including a short week and road fatigue.[2][4]
ESPN analysts largely back Seattle: Maldonado predicts Seahawks 21-10, Moody 30-17, Solak 20-13, and Walder a close 23-20.[1] Bleacher Report’s Knox favors Seahawks (-7.5), citing San Francisco’s potential breaking point despite possible returns like Fred Warner, noting Seattle’s recent 10-point win over the Niners.[4] CBS Sports’ model, simulating games 10,000 times, leans toward the home team.[3]
Bold counter-predictions emerge: NFL.com envisions a shocking 49ers 14-13 upset, powered by Christian McCaffrey’s two touchdowns and three Sam Darnold turnovers forced by Robert Saleh’s defense, defying odds in a low-scoring affair.[2] A YouTube breakdown echoes Seattle’s momentum as one of the NFL’s hottest teams.[6] LA Times picks Seahawks to advance.[7]
Bills at Broncos: High-Altitude Revenge?
Saturday’s opener pits Josh Allen’s Bills against Sean Payton’s Broncos in Denver. ESPN experts overwhelmingly pick Denver: Moody 27-24, Solak 19-13, Walder 27-21, with FPI at 50.7% favoring the Broncos by a slim 0.4 points.[1] Motivation runs high after Buffalo’s 31-7 wild-card domination last year.[5] A Chat Sports projection calls for a one-score Broncos win.[6]
Patriots at Texans: Streaks on the Line
Sunday’s AFC tilt sees the Patriots (with eight straight divisional wins) facing C.J. Stroud’s Texans, who seek their first divisional victory. Odds list New England as 3-point favorites.[5] ESPN splits: Maldonado and Moody back Pats (24-17, 20-13), Solak Texans 24-17, Walder Pats 27-20, FPI slightly Pats 51.7%.[1] Bleacher Report favors Patriots.[4] NFL.com’s Maurice Jones-Drew predicts Stefon Diggs explodes for 150 yards and two TDs against Houston’s secondary.[2] Texans’ Nico Collins is out with concussion.[1]
Rams at Bears: Record-Shattering Shootout?
The weekend caps with Matthew Stafford’s Rams (12-5) at Caleb Williams’ Bears (11-6), Rams -3.5 favorites.[4][5] ESPN leans Rams: Maldonado 38-30, Moody 30-24, Walder 33-28, FPI 61.8% by 4.5 points; Solak bucks with Bears 33-31.[1] NFL.com boldly forecasts Rams 52-45, shattering the playoff scoring record (previously Cardinals-Packers 51-45 in 2009).[2] Bleacher Report divides: Hanford Bears +3.5 citing Rams’ wild-card struggles, Moton Rams to stifle Chicago’s run.[4] Chicago’s defense eyes Stafford interceptions in the cold at Soldier Field.[2]
Divisional Round Odds Snapshot
| Matchup | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Bills at Broncos | Den -1.5 | N/A |
| 49ers at Seahawks | Sea -7 | 45.5 |
| Patriots at Texans | NE -3 | N/A |
| Rams at Bears | LAR -3.5 | N/A |
Historic streaks add intrigue: New England boasts eight straight divisional wins, San Francisco seven.[5] As these games unfold, bettors and fans eye SportsLine’s model (53-37 on top picks) for edges.[3][5] The Divisional Round sets the stage for conference championships, with underdogs like the injury-riddled 49ers and surging Bears threatening chalk picks.
“Seattle won the last meeting by 10, and even though Fred Warner may return… I think this one will bring a similar outcome.” – Bleacher Report’s Knox[4]
Stay tuned for live updates as the 2026 playoffs deliver playoff magic this weekend.