Russia’s Territorial Control in Ukraine Amid Trump’s Land Swap Proposal
August 10, 2025 – More than three years into the conflict, Russia currently controls significant portions of Ukrainian territory, prompting fresh debate after former U.S. President Donald Trump suggested a land swap between the two countries as a possible peace solution.
Russian forces continue to occupy approximately 18-20% of Ukraine, primarily in the eastern and southern regions, with control focused on the oblasts (administrative regions) of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson. These territories, annexed by Russia in a widely condemned move in 2022, remain contested and are not fully controlled by Moscow, even as Putin demands Kyiv cede them outright to end hostilities.
Russia first initiated its incursions in Ukraine by annexing Crimea in 2014, followed by support for separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk. The full-scale invasion began in February 2022, with initial attempts to seize large swathes of territory including Kyiv, which ultimately failed. Since then, the conflict’s frontlines have shifted mainly to eastern and southern Ukraine.
Extent and Dynamics of Russian Control
As of July 2025, Russian military and proxy forces occupy about 113,888 square kilometers (approximately 43,972 square miles), slightly under 19% of Ukraine’s territory. This marks a moderate increase from earlier in the year. Despite continued Russian advances, Ukrainian counteroffensives have regained parts of previously lost areas, maintaining a protracted and fluctuating conflict front.
Key territories under Russian domination include:
- Donetsk and Luhansk: The Donbas region, an industrial and resource-rich area, forms the primary battleground with Russia controlling large parts, though Ukrainian forces maintain significant pockets.
- Zaporizhzhia and Kherson: Strategic for controlling access to the Sea of Azov and southern maritime routes, these regions are partially occupied, with ongoing hostilities and infrastructure damage.
Military and Humanitarian Impact
The war has caused massive casualties and displacement. Estimates indicate over 900,000 Russian servicemen killed or injured since the conflict’s start, alongside tens of thousands of civilian and military losses on both sides. Approximately 8 million Ukrainians have been internally displaced by 2025. The fighting has also devastated key cities such as Vuhledar and Pokrovsk, with infrastructure destroyed and populations suffering severe deprivation.
Trump’s Land Swap Proposal and Implications
Former President Trump’s suggestion of a land swap—exchanging certain Ukrainian territory controlled by Russia for other concessions—triggered intense international debate. Critics argue such a swap would reward illegal annexations and undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and international law. The Ukrainian government and Western allies view ceding territory as contrary to Kyiv’s defense strategy and the broader principle of non-recognition of forceful territorial changes.
Russia continues to assert expansive territorial ambitions beyond the four main oblasts, including symbolic claims over entire cities like Kharkiv and Odesa, signaling that Moscow’s strategic goals may extend beyond formally annexed regions. Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear aims to replace Ukraine’s government with a pro-Moscow regime, secure Ukrainian neutrality, and suppress national identity, indicating that territorial issues are only part of a wider geopolitical agenda.
Outlook
Despite long-standing conflict and ongoing Russian occupation of significant Ukrainian land, the situation remains fluid. Western support and Ukrainian resilience continue shaping the war’s dynamics. Analysts emphasize that any lasting peace will likely require complex negotiations addressing territorial integrity, sovereignty, and security guarantees. Meanwhile, Russia’s war aims hint at potentially prolonged instability unless diplomatic solutions become viable.