St. John’s Red Storm Favored Over Kansas Jayhawks in Tense NCAA Tournament Second-Round Clash
New York, NY – In a marquee matchup pitting two legendary coaches against each other, the No. 5 seed St. John’s Red Storm face off against the No. 4 seed Kansas Jayhawks in the second round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament’s East Region. The game, tipping off at 5:15 p.m. ET on CBS, has St. John’s favored by 3.5 points despite their lower seeding, setting the stage for a potential upset or statement win.[1][3]
Coaching Titans Collide
Rick Pitino’s St. John’s squad enters the contest riding a scorching seven-game winning streak, including dominant victories over Northern Iowa by 26 points and UConn by 20. The Red Storm, who suffered a humiliating 72-40 loss to UConn on February 25, have turned their season around, covering the spread in six of those seven games. Under Pitino, St. John’s boasts an impressive 72-10 straight-up record and 48-32-2 against the spread as favorites, with a 12-6 SU and 14-4 ATS mark in tournament play.[1][4][5]
Opposite them stands Bill Self’s Kansas Jayhawks, who advanced past Cal Baptist in the first round after a shaky performance where they built an early lead only to see it evaporate before pulling away. Kansas finished the regular season with a tough Big 12 schedule—the nation’s most challenging at +16.56 net rating per KenPom—and enters as underdogs with a 6-6 ATS record in that role this season.[1][4]
Betting Odds and Expert Predictions
The betting lines reflect St. John’s momentum: Spread: St. John’s -3.5 | Kansas +3.5; Moneyline: St. John’s -170 | Kansas +145; Total: 144.5. Polymarket odds give the Red Storm a 62% implied probability of victory, while ESPN’s matchup predictor favors them at 57.1%.[3][6][7]
Advanced metrics paint a close picture. St. John’s ranks 14th in KenPom net rating (+26.61) and holds a higher relative rating (26.3) than Kansas (21.8) per EvanMiya, with edges in offense (+2.9) and defense (+1.5). Both teams are defensive juggernauts—St. John’s eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency, Kansas 10th per Bart Torvik. However, Kansas counters with superior three-point shooting and free-throw accuracy (35th nationally), critical in a physical battle.[1][3][5]
Key Players to Watch
St. John’s senior forward Zuby Ejiofor is a focal point, averaging 23.6 combined points and rebounds per game. During the team’s streak, he’s elevated to 27.0 points-plus-rebounds on 60.5% field goal shooting. PrizePicks projects him over 25.5 in that combo stat.[1]
For Kansas, guard Darryn Peterson has emerged as a star, dropping 28 points on 11-of-18 shooting (including four threes) against Cal Baptist despite early misses. With a 30%+ usage rate, his 115.0 offensive rating ranks 11th among high-usage players per Bart Torvik. He’s scored 24+ in four of his last six, and PrizePicks has him at 23 points.[1][3]
Kansas’ frontcourt size matches St. John’s athleticism, with Flory Bidunga, Bryson Tiller, and Paul Mbiya all 6-foot-10 or taller. Yet St. John’s struggles from deep (33.3% on a low 34.2% three-point rate), which could play into Kansas’ hands if Peterson heats up.[3][5]
Analyst Breakdowns and Bold Predictions
Covers recommends the Kansas moneyline (+140), citing their three-point edge, Peterson’s dominance, and free-throw reliability in a foul-heavy game. VSiN projects a razor-thin St. John’s win, 74.5-72.7, praising the Red Storm’s top-10 defense (93.7 points allowed) and offensive rebounding (35.9%). PickDawgz handicapper Brad Francis leans St. John’s, highlighting their roll and Kansas’ first-round vulnerabilities.[3][4][5]
| Metric | St. John’s | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 29-6 | 29-6 |
| KenPom Net Rating | 14th (+26.61) | 21st (+24.37) |
| Adj. Defensive Efficiency (Torvik) | 8th | 10th |
| ATS as Favorite/Underdog | 18-10-1 / N/A | N/A / 6-6 |
Game Context and Stakes
St. John’s dominated the Big East, finishing 18-2 in conference play ahead of UConn (17-3). Kansas, battle-tested from the Big 12, stumbled late with losses to Cincinnati and Arizona State, raising questions about their mental toughness against Pitino’s gritty squad.[2][4][5]
As the game unfolds—early live stats show St. John’s leading 3-0 with a Bryce Hopkins three assisted by Ejiofor—the winner advances deeper into March Madness. A St. John’s victory would affirm their favorite status and Pitino’s tournament prowess; a Kansas upset could spark a redemption run for Self’s Jayhawks.[2]
Fans and bettors alike are glued to this East Region thriller, where elite defense, star power, and coaching pedigree promise edge-of-your-seat action.