Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly reshaping the US labor market, with young technology workers experiencing disproportionate effects, according to recent analysis from Goldman Sachs.
Goldman Sachs’ chief economist Jan Hatzius and senior global economist Joseph Briggs detailed that the tech sector’s share of US employment peaked in November 2022, coinciding with the launch of ChatGPT, but has since noticeably declined below long-term trends. This shift marks the onset of AI-induced disruption in hiring patterns, particularly in technology jobs.
One stark indicator is the unemployment rate for tech workers aged 20 to 30, which has risen by nearly three percentage points since early 2025. This rise is over four times greater than the increase in the overall unemployment rate, highlighting the acute impact on younger workers in the tech industry.
Goldman Sachs estimates that generative AI technologies could eventually displace between six and seven percent of all US workers in the coming decade. While the overall expected unemployment impact is projected to be manageable—peaking around a 0.5 percentage point increase—the effects on specific sectors, such as tech, are already evident.
Joseph Briggs noted that for nearly two decades tech employment steadily gained share of total US jobs, but the past three years have seen an erosion of that growth, attributed mainly to the rising adoption of AI tools. Large-scale AI deployment is still in early stages across industries, but its influence on hiring practices, especially for early-career workers, signals a broader transformation in the labor landscape.
Supporting data from Indeed also points to a slowdown in tech job postings, which in July 2025 were 36% lower than levels seen in early 2020. While AI is a contributing factor to this slowdown, broader economic conditions and the post-pandemic hiring boom also play significant roles.
Despite these shifts, Goldman Sachs researchers emphasize that, at present, AI’s impact on labor market outcomes remains limited outside of these emerging trends. The firm advocates close monitoring as AI infrastructure and adoption evolve, with attention from policymakers, business leaders, and workers crucial to managing upcoming challenges and opportunities.
This analysis comes amid ongoing debates about AI’s role in the future of work, where concerns run from productivity gains to potential widespread job displacement.